A girl absolutely destroyed me in three months ago so I’ve lost 20 pounds since then (I used working out as a coping mechanism). Trust me- I would have rather have her + weight gain rather than the weight loss.
“hello, next mortgage crisis”…probably not true, explained by a reddit user much smarter than me:
i’ve been in finance for 20 years, through a handful of burst bubbles and crashes, and — while i have a healthy respect for bubbles — i challenge a lot of what appears to be the conventional wisdom in the housing bubble aftermath that the student loan bubble ends in the same way, or even (all due respect to Mark Cuban) ends at all. i’ve yet to be convinced of the avenue for a true crash.
what made the housing bubble so devastating in 2007 and 2008 was that the loans being expanded to support house price growth were being created in an off-balance sheet system of special purpose vehicles that would issue commercial paper (CP) and other debt instruments to fund large baskets of loans. because of the way those instruments were tranched and then insured (‘wrapped’) much of them were issued as AAA securities, enabling a massive restricted capital pool (insurance, pension, banks, etc) to buy them.
key #1 in this is who was doing the wrapping — at that time, private institutions called monolines that carried sterling reputations but very little capital reserve. key #2 was that the loan performance could be drastically affected by feedback from the price of the asset — it was not widely recognized or modeled that deteriorating loan performance could spark capital flight and a national coordinated decline in housing prices that would further deteriorate loan performance. (even though that had happened many times before….) such a large feedback loop could destroy the monolines quickly and precipitate a disaster.
student loans are not entirely like that. key #1 is that, while plenty of capital is flowing into making student loans, the loans themselves are overwhelmingly wrapped by the United States federal government — the investors are going to be made whole regardless, as the thing comes pre-bailed out even in the event of a wreck. that dramatically reduces the possibility of a wreck because capital has very little reason to fly away.
key #2 also doesn’t hold — the price of the asset is the long-term value of a college education, and that is not going to decline even if the loans stop coming. even with tuition where it is, college still represents a sterling investment to the student — the families are going to keep coming for new loans. and the loans themselves cannot be discharged even in bankruptcy (unlike with housing, where you can in most states mail the keys to the lender and walk). that eliminates the feedback loop that wrecked housing.
on the one hand, there’s no doubt that many kids are being saddled with lots of debt in return for spurious degrees of questionable value. but that in and of itself is a more sustainable model than one might wish to believe — mostly a matter of adjusting interest rates. for a true crash to materialize, there has to be a mechanism capable of that kind of volatility. one of the reasons student loans have become such a center of loan growth is that the financial system recognizes the absence of that mechanism.
that’s not to say it can go on without limit. things like the Sweet Briar capitulation are evidence that students are getting more cost conscious. but tuition and fees at Sweet Briar for undergraduates were also in excess of $50,000/year for a liberal arts education that is socially desirable but otherwise difficult to monetize. that’s far from foretelling the end of higher education.
As someone who’s currently cutting his teeth working in a busy, inner-city emergency department, I’ll say that: 1) You’re not the worst type of person to come through the ED (that’s reserved for the pain med seekers, drunks and extreme hypochondriacs…the amount of ridiculous stories I have over the past three years is insane) and 2) Every nurse and doctor that treated you definitely made fun of you behind your back.
Also: The ED is nothing like the show “ER” or the “Night Shift”…well at least 90% of the time.
Going to a Mexican restaurant with my co-workers to celebrate Cinco. The crew is a weird mashup of 20-somethings who are either A) Already in med school B) Applying to med/pa school or C) Have no fucking clue what they’re doing with their life (I’m firmly in category C).
First time the crew is going to do a golf-themed, all-day Sunday Funday in honor of the final round of the masters, any suggestions? I want to get after it but still make it through the entire day.
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What does it say about you if you watch every category listed above? Asking for a friend.
A girl absolutely destroyed me in three months ago so I’ve lost 20 pounds since then (I used working out as a coping mechanism). Trust me- I would have rather have her + weight gain rather than the weight loss.
As a brown man I have to say, Marikh might be my dream girl.
We don’t have NBA or NFL players but goddamn we may have a bachelor winner.
I feel like this dude heard about “peacocking” from his virgin friends and decided to make a clothing line based on the concept.
*Checks Natalia Dyer’s age on Wikipedia*
Nancy Wheeler can get it.
Dick Clark?
Parents are forcing me to drive to Durham, NC to see my cousin’s baby. About 6 hours round trip and I miss all of the Saturday games. FML.
I’ve always enjoyed Sammy Cacciatore, from Blue Mountain State, threatening people to jerk them off. Quickly diffuses any situation.
“hello, next mortgage crisis”…probably not true, explained by a reddit user much smarter than me:
i’ve been in finance for 20 years, through a handful of burst bubbles and crashes, and — while i have a healthy respect for bubbles — i challenge a lot of what appears to be the conventional wisdom in the housing bubble aftermath that the student loan bubble ends in the same way, or even (all due respect to Mark Cuban) ends at all. i’ve yet to be convinced of the avenue for a true crash.
what made the housing bubble so devastating in 2007 and 2008 was that the loans being expanded to support house price growth were being created in an off-balance sheet system of special purpose vehicles that would issue commercial paper (CP) and other debt instruments to fund large baskets of loans. because of the way those instruments were tranched and then insured (‘wrapped’) much of them were issued as AAA securities, enabling a massive restricted capital pool (insurance, pension, banks, etc) to buy them.
key #1 in this is who was doing the wrapping — at that time, private institutions called monolines that carried sterling reputations but very little capital reserve. key #2 was that the loan performance could be drastically affected by feedback from the price of the asset — it was not widely recognized or modeled that deteriorating loan performance could spark capital flight and a national coordinated decline in housing prices that would further deteriorate loan performance. (even though that had happened many times before….) such a large feedback loop could destroy the monolines quickly and precipitate a disaster.
student loans are not entirely like that. key #1 is that, while plenty of capital is flowing into making student loans, the loans themselves are overwhelmingly wrapped by the United States federal government — the investors are going to be made whole regardless, as the thing comes pre-bailed out even in the event of a wreck. that dramatically reduces the possibility of a wreck because capital has very little reason to fly away.
key #2 also doesn’t hold — the price of the asset is the long-term value of a college education, and that is not going to decline even if the loans stop coming. even with tuition where it is, college still represents a sterling investment to the student — the families are going to keep coming for new loans. and the loans themselves cannot be discharged even in bankruptcy (unlike with housing, where you can in most states mail the keys to the lender and walk). that eliminates the feedback loop that wrecked housing.
on the one hand, there’s no doubt that many kids are being saddled with lots of debt in return for spurious degrees of questionable value. but that in and of itself is a more sustainable model than one might wish to believe — mostly a matter of adjusting interest rates. for a true crash to materialize, there has to be a mechanism capable of that kind of volatility. one of the reasons student loans have become such a center of loan growth is that the financial system recognizes the absence of that mechanism.
that’s not to say it can go on without limit. things like the Sweet Briar capitulation are evidence that students are getting more cost conscious. but tuition and fees at Sweet Briar for undergraduates were also in excess of $50,000/year for a liberal arts education that is socially desirable but otherwise difficult to monetize. that’s far from foretelling the end of higher education.
As someone who’s currently cutting his teeth working in a busy, inner-city emergency department, I’ll say that: 1) You’re not the worst type of person to come through the ED (that’s reserved for the pain med seekers, drunks and extreme hypochondriacs…the amount of ridiculous stories I have over the past three years is insane) and 2) Every nurse and doctor that treated you definitely made fun of you behind your back.
Also: The ED is nothing like the show “ER” or the “Night Shift”…well at least 90% of the time.
Ed Chambers fucks.
PAY DAT MAHNE HIS MONE
Going to a Mexican restaurant with my co-workers to celebrate Cinco. The crew is a weird mashup of 20-somethings who are either A) Already in med school B) Applying to med/pa school or C) Have no fucking clue what they’re doing with their life (I’m firmly in category C).
Gotta get weird.
So basically he’s J.R. Smith?
First time the crew is going to do a golf-themed, all-day Sunday Funday in honor of the final round of the masters, any suggestions? I want to get after it but still make it through the entire day.
“So yeah, I sampled your voice, you was using it wrong. You made it a hot line, I made it a hot song.” -Barrett Dudley
Tacos.
It’s not that hard to figure out, he’s trying to slay.
MY TAX REFUND JUST GOT DEPOSITED TODAY. YEAH YOU KNOW THAT MONEY TALKS, I AM THE VENTRILOQUIST.