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Let’s put it this way: if instead of the weekly payments to my bookie(s) over the years, if I’d instead put that money into an average to above average performing mutual fund, I’d probably have enough cash to buy your sister that wedding ring I’ve been promising her. But I can’t stop. I won’t stop. My bookie will continue to buy his Armani suits at the expense of my future ex-wife’s alimony payments, and I’ll continue to ride the cheap thrill roller coaster of betting sports.
Betting the NFL isn’t easy. But it’s the hard that makes it great. If it was easy, everyone would do it (Dugan, J. 1992). I’ve been doing weekly picks for other blogs over the years; blogs that I’ve been fired from, but it wasn’t for lack of giving winners. And winners I gave. At a clip of, like, I don’t know, maybe 55%? If you’re looking to break even with your gambling endeavors every Sunday, then do yourself a favor and tail my picks. Or fade. You do you. Jimmy crack corn and I don’t care.
Anyway, off to a quick 2-0 start.
— Boston Max (@BostonMaxG) September 7, 2017
FALCONS (-7) AT BEARS; 49
What will Atlanta’s offense look like without Kyle Shanahan? How will they overcome the emotional spankbang of SB 51? As for da Bears…they leveraged a bunch of draft picks for a QB who won’t see the field for a while, in a shocking move of incompetence that surprised nobody. What will Chicago look like with Mike Glennon running the offense? The dude is 27 going on 40. He looks like a 5th year who plays wayyy too much intramural basketball and has to wear knee braces just to get up and down the floor. Knee-jerk is obviously to take the Falcons, but the public is way too heavy on Atlanta with limited line movement, so give me the points. I’ll take the under, too. Have a hunch both offenses start out a bit sluggish.
Picks: Bears +7; Under 49
EAGLES (-1) AT REDSKINS; 47.5
Nice little battle of division rivals between two of the NFL’s most annoying fanbases. On the one hand, I lost too much money betting on Carson Wentz and his Seth Rogen looking ass to want to bet on him in week 1. On the other, the Skins didn’t have a rabblerousing off-season. Gun to head, give me the home dogs.
Picks: Redskins +1; Under 47.5
STEELERS (-9) AT BROWNS; 47
I hate taking huge road favorites in division games (unless it’s the Pats literally anywhere in the AFC East). This game is no exception. Yes, Pittsburgh is probably the second-best team in the AFC. Yes, Cleveland is more of a disaster than anything you’ll see on Efukt today. I’ll Costanza this one and do the opposite, even though I want to take the Browns because I’m a self-hating Jew.
Picks: Steelers -9; Under 47
RAVENS AT BENGALS (-3); 42.5
Crazy how Colin Kaepernick is getting the start here for Baltimore…just kidding, it’s actually going to be Joe Flacco (wink wink). One hit from Vontaze Burfict and Flacco is going to wind up with a back looking like some teen chick with scoliosis. LOVE the Bungalos at home in the opener against a Ravens squad that honestly has too many question marks, especially with a number of recent injuries on their side. Also, Cincy has won five straight at home versus Baltimore.
Picks: Bengals -3; Over 42.5
CARDINALS (-1.5) AT LIONS; 48
Mike Conley of the NFL, Matthew Stafford. Big time contracts for these guys. Stafford’s gotta live up, now. That’s a tough task against one of the NFL’s best defenses. But…BUT, Carson Palmer, what’s he like 45? Don’t sleep on the Lions; Detroit has an updated offensive line, and their running backs are healthy.
Picks: Lions +1.5; Under 48
JETS AT BILLS (-9); 40
Picks: Bills -9; Under 40
RAIDERS AT TITANS (-2.5); 50.5
Fishy line. Oakland is a great squad, but Tennessee is a team on the rise. Plus, we’ve got a west coast team coming east for a 1 p.m. game. Something about this has me more confused than when all the kids at summer camp were doing the Big Red Challenge with their dicks. LOTS of line movement, too. -1 to -2.5, even though the public is on Oakland. Means the sharks are putting big cashola on Mariota and co.
Picks: Titans -2.5; Under 50.5
JAGUARS AT TEXANS (-6); 39.5
Look, this one isn’t about the X’s and O’s. It’s not about which shitty quarterback can play just a little bit less shitty than the other. This is about Houston. It’s about a home game at NRG. You didn’t want to play the Red Sox after the marathon bombing. You didn’t want to play the Saints after Katrina. And you don’t want to play me after my attempts at doing the sex. (Get it, cuz it’s a disaster?) Anyway, fuck hurricanes. I’ll take Houston in a beat down of, dare I say, Harvey proportions? (Too soon, I know, I’m an asshole).
Picks: Texans -6; Over 39.5
COLTS AT RAMS (-4); 41.5
I think I just threw up a little bit in my mouth. I honestly don’t even know who’s under center for Indy and I’m way too lazy to look it up. I think it’s Scott Tolzein hahahahah. I do know their secondary is trashier than a Jersey turnpiking, hoop earing wearing, spray tan sporting, short skirt jorting, bimbo son of a gun WOO! Anyway, LA has Sammy Watkins and Tavon Austin, who can both wreak havoc in the Colts. If only Jared Goff could hit them in stride without getting savaged by defensive ends. Good thing Indy has hardly anything remotely scary about their pass rush.
Picks: Rams -4; Over 41.5
SEAHAWKS AT PACKERS (-3); 51
There is way too much public favor on Green Bay. Yeah, the Packers are great. But are people really giving the Hawks no credit, even at Lambeau? That’s bananas in pajamas. I’m going to even sprinkle a little beer money on Seahawks money line (although Seattle hasn’t won at the frozen tundra since 1991…yikes). If Green Bay’s atrocious secondary remains atrocious, I can’t help but LOVE Russell Wilson and the idiot himself Pete Carroll. Also, total seems a bit too high for a game featuring Seattle defense, even if it is against Jordan Rodgers’ brother.
Picks: Seahawks +3; Under 51
PANTHERS (-6) AT 49ERS; 48
Seen this line at 5, 5.5, and 6. It’s been all over the place, but I expect it to land at 6 by game time. Get your pick in early if you can get it at 5 or 5.5 if you like the Panthers. Personally, I like the points, so I’ll wait until game time and try and snag it at 6 or more. Too much cheese on Carolina. And too much on the under. Public under at almost 80%? Auto-fade territory.
Picks: Niners +6; Over 48
GIANTS AT COWBOYS (-4); 47.5
While Giants-Cowboys are always wicked close, there’s no way the wrath of Zeke isn’t felt. Plus, dem boyz went 0-2 last year against the G-men, and you have to think there’ll be a little giddy up in them, especially Sunday night foozeball, at home, season opener. Add in that ODB hasn’t been practicing, is 50-50 at best, and if he plays you probably don’t have to scheme too heavily for him. I like Dallas.
Picks: Cowboys -4; Under 47.5
SAINTS AT VIKINGS (-3.5); 48
The public is all over New Orleans and the under, and any time the public is all over dawgs and unders, especially road dogs, that’s fade city for me. I have no actual insights in this game, except AP’s return to Minny is a nice little extracurricular story line.
Picks: Vikings -3.5; Over 48
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS (-3.5); 43
Two head coaching debuts in this one. Vance
Joy Joseph is a really defensive minded coach, which just makes me think the Broncos defense will be scarier than the remake of It. For San Diego Los Angeles, they’ve improved on both sides of the ball. But MNF, in Denver, home opener? Tough place to play, even for a division rival.
Picks: Broncos -3.5; Under 43
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