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I know a group of degenerates when I see one. I’ve been lurking in the PGP universe for quite a while now, and I would like to finally offer some help to those who are are likeminded. From what I’ve gathered, most of you fall in the categories of loving college football, needing some extra cash, and finding an adrenaline rush whenever you can. If you fall into these categories, read further.
As you probably suspect, I love gambling. My dreams of being a Vegas shark are quickly dwindling as my degree isn’t so much statistics as it is stopping criminals. However, I’d like to live out my dream once a week on PGP by helping out some guys (and gals) looking to make a quick buck on what I consider the pinnacle of American sports, college football (Come at me, NFL bros). These won’t necessarily be the sexiest games in the world, but they’ll damn sure help pay for your beer tab and will make your blood pump a little harder during the ESPN 2 noon kickoff that you wouldn’t give a shit about otherwise.
Lines provided by oddsshark.com
Army vs. Penn State (+7.5)
I’ll throw out a disclaimer that I completely believe that this is a typo on the oddsshark.com website. If my suspicions are true, disregard this first pick. But nothing else needs to be said other than it’s in Happy Valley and Army is 1-3 with a loss to Fordham.
The pick: Penn State at +7.5. Straight up at roughly +280 if available.
Baylor vs. Texas Tech (o/u 85.5)
What, Mel?! You want us to bet over on a 85.5 point line? You bet your ass I do. We’ve seen that Kliff Kingsbury has dialed up a serious offense in Lubbock, based on the 52 they hung on TCU last week. Patrick Mahomes has been playing outstanding, but could be sidelined this week with a knee injury. Nothing to fear though, Davis Webb has had plenty of playing experience. Plus, this type of offense at Tech is more or less a plug and play system at QB. Nothing needs to be said about the spread system in Waco, as Baylor has scored no less than 56 points this season. If Lamar can score 31 on Baylor, I see Tech having no problems at least matching that, and I’ll be shocked if Baylor scores under 60.
The pick: Over 85.5.
Alabama (+2) vs. Georgia
If the current lines hold, Saturday will snap a 72 game favorite streak for Alabama. If you know anything about sports gambling, you’ll know that is an insane statistic. I personally don’t think that this is the right game to end that streak. Alabama’s front seven is arguably the best in college football, meaning that running on them is a chore. Despite the best running back duo in college football, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, and a very stout offensive line, Georgia will have a tough time on Saturday between the hedges. I think that the front seven of Alabama and UGA’s running game will cancel out, leaving UGA starting QB Greyson Lambert to win it for the Dawgs. Lambert is a graduate transfer from Virginia, where they don’t see matchups like this one, and he has yet to play under this much pressure (literally and figuratively). Bama neutralizes the run, shuts down Lambert, and the Alabama running game behind Derrick Henry does just enough to win a tight one.
The pick: Alabama at +2. Take the money line of roughly +125 if you really believe in the Tide.
Nebraska (-7.5) vs. Illinois
Based on records alone, people might scoff at this pick. However, Nebraska has lost both games at the very end, against Miami and BYU respectively. The Miami fourth quarter shows what Nebraska is capable of, as they stormed back to force OT. Illinois is currently sitting at 3-1, but against subpar competition. Anyone that follows the Big Ten knows that Illinois has been generally irrelevant since Juice Williams, and I don’t expect that to change. After getting throttled by North Carolina, and edging Middle Tennessee by two points, I’ll take Nebraska all day in this game.
The pick: Nebraska at -7.5
Washington State vs. Cal (o/u 64.5)
I wholeheartedly expect this line to move based on betting activity. Currently, 98 percent of the bets placed on the over/under have been placed on the over, meaning the line will move up. Between Mike Leach’s offense coming out of Pullman, and possibly the first QB taken off the board in next spring’s NFL draft in Jared Goff from Cal, expect A LOT of points to be scored. Washington State hasn’t yet scored as much as Leach’s air raid offense has in the past, but I look at this game as a possible turning point. Cal gave up 44 points to a bad Texas offense two weeks ago, and the WSU has topped 30 points in each of the the previous two games. If the line holds at 64.5, this is money in the bank. Even if the line moves up and hovers around 70, I would still be very comfortable taking the over.
The pick: Over.
Weekly running totals of the previous weeks will be posted on the following week’s post. .
Image via YouTube
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MelKiperSr
Great American, mediocre student, terrible golfer. For lukewarm takes, you can find me at @mel_kiper_sr on twitter, or hit the inbox at melkipersr@gmail.com.
@Mel_Kiper_Sr
@Mel_Kiper_Sr
Vegasinsider has Penn State -23 at open, however off on other books. If Penn State were +3, might as well liquefy any and all assets and bet the house on PSU ML.
I went off Oddsshark, they had Penn State at +7.5. There’s a reason I didn’t elaborate too much, it would be the ultimate no brainer if true.
For the NFL Bros…
Bengals -4 vs. Chiefs
Bills -5.5 vs. Giants
Cardinals -7 vs. Rams
Panthers -3 @ Bucs
Steelers +3 vs. Ravens
Packers -9 @ 49ers
Also, over 23.5 points for the Raiders.
That’s a lot of favorites you got there…
It is, but statistically speaking those teams should be favored by more (according to models like Nate Silver’s ELO). Those ELO spreads look something like this…
Bengals -5 vs. Chiefs
Bills -6.5 vs. Giants
Cardinals -9 vs. Rams
Panthers -6 @ Bucs
Steelers -5.5 vs. Ravens
Packers -3.5 @ 49ers (I realize I went the wrong way on this one but Rodgers is awesome)
Fair enough. I do like the Bills and Packers. 49ers are a literal dumpster fire.
Nebraska vs Illinois? Seriously? Where’s the blonde in the Brady jersey? 2NOTBrokeGirls made that jersey look really good.
Please let this become a thing.
My stone cold, lead pipe lock of the week is Dallas getting 4 @ New Orleans. That’s easy money right there, folks.
I’m not giving up 4 points on the road, that’s for sure.
But then again, I hate betting favorites – ask any bookie and they’ll tell you their best clients bet nothing but favorites and overs. Sharps are always looking for the dogs.
I try to stay away from favorites, unless there’s one that’s super attractive (like Nebraska) for whatever reason.
In the NFL, you get roughly three points at home. That would make Dallas a one point favorite on a neutral field. That seems about right, without Romo and Dez. I definitely wouldn’t bet the house on Dallas, but it could be a good bet if Brees is limited.
I’m right there with you on favorites. If I see a dog I like, I’m quick to go big. 9 times out of 10 I will talk myself off a favorite and just sit that game out.
I do agree that the line seems about right for Dallas – my point being that 4 points on the road just screams Dallas winning by a FG.
*One point dog. Dammit.