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Okay, hand up, that one’s on me — Week 1 was a poor showing. My performance was on par with the Patriots Super Bowl defense; on par with Leo on Bachelor in Paradise. But come on, not my fault that the Colts blew a 23-10 lead. How was I supposed to know Aaron Rodgers was going to blow a tire so early in the ball game?
But that’s Week 1 in the NFL. You never really know what you’re going to get. Teams with new head coaches? 0-7. Who would’ve guessed that? Not me, I tell ya. Now it’s Week 2. We’ve got a bit more data on teams. We’ve at least seen what new pieces look like on new teams and new schemes and new dreams and new memes. We got the bad week out of the way, and now it’s time to stack units.
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I’m not really interested in picking a side here, although gun to head I’d be on Colts +6. But what I really like here it the total, and I’ll be on the under like Trump on Twitter. Andrew Luck had to throw the ball 53 times against Cincy in his return to action because the Colts simply cannot run the ball. The R-words are tough against the pass (6th in DVOA through week 1), and I see Washington trying to control the pace of place with Adrian Peterson and Alex Smith. The Redskins are steady-eddy on offense but don’t have too much huge play potential. Add in the chance of rain due to Florence? Game is going under.
Pick: Indianapolis/Washington Under 47
PANTHERS (+6) AT FALCONS; U44.5
I think this opened at Falcons -5 and quickly moved a whole point to -6. Let me say this: if you bet the Falcons after what you saw on opening night, you need to check yourself into an institution. The Falcons STINK. They are now down two studs on defense (Deion Jones, Keanu Neal). Throw in the fact that my love life is more flourishing than their red zone offense and I’m actually shocked they’re favored by this much in a divisional game, even though they’re the host team.
Picks: Carolina +6; Under 44.5
CHIEFS AT STEELERS (-4)
I loved this game when I saw it at Pittsburgh -5, and now it’s down to 4, and I love it like I love your sister. Let me ask you this: how can you fathom even considering the Chiefs on the road? With an unproven QB? At Pittsburgh? Yes, I know Mahomes looked dominant against what a lot of people think is a playoff team in
San Diego Los Angeles. But he’s so unproven. And a really good Pittsburgh team who pissed away that game against Cleveland I expect to see come back and make some noise. KC wasn’t even particularly impressive on the defensive side of the ball at all, what makes anyone think they’re going to get stops in Pittsburgh?
Pick: Pittsburgh -4
EAGLES AT BUCCANEERS (+3.5)
Will Tampa catch lightning in a bottle twice? Look, I was all over the Bucs +10 against New Orleans last week; I knew deep down in my soul that Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to go off for a zillion points. Every year he has a few games where he stacks stats to keep him in the league another year. I have my doubts that Tampa will be able to put up many points against Philly’s tough defense, but what I need to see from Philly is proof that they can score points. Their Nick Foles led offense looked anemic on opening night, absolutely gross. I’m not so much as leaning on the Bucs here as simply fading Philly until they prove to me that they can score points without having to lean heavily on gimmicky trick plays.
Pick: Tampa Bay +3.5
BROWNS AT SAINTS (-10)
It’s funny how this business of gambling on the NFL goes. One week I’m on the Browns at four point dogs against Pittsburgh meanwhile I’m on the opposite side of a New Orleans 10-point spread. Well, we’re back with New Orleans being a 10-point favorite, and this time I love them. Cleveland, coming off their tie, looked okay. Their pass defense was good, they forced six (!) turnovers, they played like a real NFL team. Having said that, Tyrod Taylor was dogshit in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Saints offense was firing on all cylinders last week, and I think their defense will be up to the task against the Browns. They will not turn it over six times this week.
Pick: New Orleans -10
I think this total opened at 47 and now it’s all the way down to 45. If you like the under get in now while the gettin’ is good because this game is going under. The Cards could barely move the ball against the Skins, so it’s unclear how they plan to actually score points against a frightening LA Rams defense. Based on the high spread (12.5) I think you could even see LA get up big early and then sit some starters like Todd Gurley. They could easily win this 33-7 or something like that.
Pick: LA/Arizona Under 45
PATRIOTS AT JAGUARS (+3); O45
What’d I say last week? Oh yeah, you don’t make money betting against the Patriots. And I bet against the Patriots. And I lost. So you’d think I’d learn, especially after spending more time with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick than I’ve spent with my actual siblings. But here I am, telling you all to take your hard earned bingo dingo doos and put them on Jax +3. If the Jaguars want people to take them seriously, they need to win this game. They almost took down the kings in the AFC Championship game on the road up in Foxboro. Well, now they’ve got home turf, the Pats offense isn’t as good as last year, and I just know that deep down somewhere dark that the Jaguars defense has the weapons to completely shut down Brady and the McOffense that doesn’t have Julian Edelman, and may not have Rex Burkhead (concussion). So I guess we’re Jagging off on Sunday. Meanwhile, everyone thinks this game is going under, and a Pats game where the total is 45 and the public thinks it’s going under to me means we bet the over. So we’re also on the over 45.
Pick: Jacksonville +3; Over 45
So that’s all for me this week (so far). I’ve got some leans on Raiders +6 and Seahawks +3.5. Also whenever the Vikings/Packers line comes out, I’ll strongly look to the Vikings. Happy gambling you scumbags.
SEASON: 4-7 .