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I told you to fade me last week. I knew my first four weeks I was too hot. First four weeks I was like Elaine driving that dude to the airport. Just seeing several moves ahead, dominating the highway. And then I hit the Van Wyck. Last week was my Van Wyck. Any way you slice it, it wasn’t pretty. But why do we fall, Bruce? Exactly. This week we pick ourselves back up.
Thursday night game …
Panthers & underq https://t.co/P5u7afs39W
— Boston Max (@BostonMaxG) October 12, 2017
…Not great, Bob!
BROWNS AT TEXANS (-9.5); 47.5
Deshaun Crick Watson has emerged! Dude’s got poise, his got a cannon, he can run, and he’s got some playmakers. While Cleveland has been stout against the run, they’ve been atrocious through the air. The loss of JJ Watt on the Texans defensive obviously sucks, but they’ve still got playmakers on a strong defensive unit. Cleveland can’t move the ball. Their offense is trash.
Picks: Texans -9.5; Under 47.5
PATRIOTS (-9.5) AT JETS; 47.5
LOL. Patriots are taking back Sunday. We’re taking back first place. And we’re reminding the world why you all hate us.
Picks: Patriots -9.5; Over 47.5
DOLPHINS AT FALCONS (-11.5); 46.5
Wow. Lots of huge point spreads this week. Miami? Actually bad. Their offensive line coach was more interested in doing lines than coaching them, and Jay Cutler cares about winning as much as Donald Trump cares about anyone besides himself. Now having said that, Miami has a great run defense, and they can run it with Ajayi really well, especially against an Atlanta defense that can’t stop the run. Miami has some cover potential here, especially late.
Picks: Dolphins +11.5; Over 46.5
LIONS AT SAINTS (-4.5); 50
This is a fishy line. Vegas has to know something with this one. Even a casual fan would say that at this point, the Lions are a better team, so why is New Orleans a 4.5-point favorite? Sure, they’re getting a top wideout target in Willie Snead back. But, Detroit has had a great defense, and Matt Stafford has played really well. I guess Detroit is down top defensive lineman Haloti Ngata, and Stafford has been hurt this week. Gotta just figure Vegas knows something here.
Picks: Saints -4.5; Under 50
PACKERS (-3) AT VIKINGS; 47
Stefon Diggs is questionable for Minny, and if he doesn’t play that’s a huge loss. Huge. Case Keenum is a gunslinger and provided a huge spark for the Vikes on Monday night. While my gut reaction is to take the Packers on the road, there’s just too much public money on GB to not be fading them.
Picks: Vikings +3; Under 47
BEARS AT RAVENS (-6.5); 39.5
It’s hard not to be impressed with Mitch Trubisky’s first career NFL game. He made some really good throws and kept his team in the game. Meanwhile, Baltimore had a great bounce-back win on the road in Oakland after scoring 15 points total the previous two games. The Ravens just have too many injuries on the offensive side of the ball for me to think they’ll win by a touchdown, even at home.
Picks: Bears +6.5; Over 39.5
49ERS AT REDSKINS (-11); 46.5
The Skins are good, but should they really be getting double-digit points against anyone? I mean, I know they’re coming off their bye week, and you’ve got a shitty west coast team coming east for the 1 p.m. slot and holy shit I think I just talked myself into taking the Skins?
Picks: Redskins -11; Under 46.5
RAM AT JAGUARS (-2.5); 42.5
Look at the Jags! Jag fever in Jacksonville! Somehow they have the best pass defense in the league. Awful run defense. But still they’re first in the league in defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). Give me the home team was the good defense.
Picks: Jags -2.5; Over 42.5
BUCCANEERS (-1.5) AT CARIDNALS; 45
Arizona STINKS. I don’t care that the public is on Tampa and yet the line moved in their favor. I really don’t. Because Arizona STINKS. They had to resort to trading for Adrian Peterson because they’re so bad. They’re actually decent against the run, but they’ve struggled against the pass and Tampa can air it out. Give me the chalk. Chalk city biccc chalk chalk city biccc.
Picks: Bucs -1.5; Over 45
STEELRS AT CHIEFS (-4); 47
Jesus what the fuck is going on with Pittsburgh? They lost to the Jags at home? And it wasn’t even close. Big Ben stunk. Le’Veon Bell stunk. Their offense is struggling. This was supposed to be the team that competed with the Pats for tops in the AFC. They need this game more than KC does, which is why I think it’s going to be a close game.
Picks: Steelers +4; Over 47
GIANTS AT BRONCOS (-11.5); 38.5
The Giants are rivaling US-North Korea international relations for world’s biggest disaster. Odell? Out for the year. Brandon Marshall? Out for the year. They’ve got players skipping practice and getting suspended. They’ve got an offensive line that bends the knee to any defensive lineman with a pulse. They’re banged up at running back. Landon Collins is banged up. Their top wideout still alive is still banged up. I don’t know how they piece this one together.
Picks: Broncos -11.5; Over 38.5
COLTS AT TITANS: Line not listed at time of writing
LAST WEEK
ATS: 6-6-2
Totals: 4-8
SEASON
ATS: 42-32-3
Totals: 41-33-1
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Respond
Boston Max
Spending my retirement fund at Trader Joe's and trying to remember to check my mailbox semi-regularly
@BostonMaxG
@boston_maxg
Diggs and Bradford (duh) are out. I can’t bet against Rodgers when the Vikes almost lost to the Bears. Trap games gonna TRAP
Again, not gonna shock me if the Pack blow out the Vikes. But you can’t make money long term doing this if you’re always on the chalk side, especially in games so heavily bet on one side by the public. Public loves GB this week, so that’s a blind fade, even though I can look at the game and be like, yeah, obviously GB is a superior team
I’m pretty sure he’s bet against the Packers every time and lost. Kid’s been listening to too much Skip Bayless.
This is factually incorrect. I remember distinctly that I took the Pack against Chicago. Can’t argue with the results right now, man. 83-65 across spreads and totals so far.
I wasn’t going to say anything the first time, but using “they’re” instead of “their” twice is just unacceptable. Once is a mistake. Twice has me questioning if you legitimately know the difference
Please direct me to these errors as I cannot seem to find them. Thank you
Dude idk what you’re talking about. I’ve read through this THREE times and I can confidently defend the correct usage of “they’re” (they are) and “their” (possessive) each time I’ve used them. Which makes me think YOU don’t know the difference…
as an amateur copy editor, I can affirm the correct usage
Yeah you’re good dude
I actually think that Jags-Rams game is gonna be a real good game. Two good defenses, two great young running backs, and an up-and-coming QB going against a great pass defense. It’s definitely intriguing.
Also, with the Jags run defense as bad as it is and their pass defense as good as it is, I think Gurley is gonna have the rock in his hands the whole game.
Ask the Steelers about giving the ball to their stud RB against the Jags shit run D…oh wait, they didn’t
All I know is my Cajun neighbor had a new smoker delivered today and I’m inviting myself over for both the LSU and Saints games this weekend.
Ask him about sucking the head. A delightful people to work with
Just know that I’ll be at the strip club yelling show me ya titties with my winnings after this game -Dick Perry