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Football Sunday has become something absolutely different in my life now that I’ve moved to NYC. It really wasn’t, like, a “thing” in Boston. You stayed home, you had some friends over, you watched the Patriots dismember some inferior opponent. In NYC? It’s like an all-day party. Superior light beers are flowing. Wings are being crushed by the pound. Bars are full everywhere. People pulling off their fall ‘fits, rocking their team colors, and trying like hell to forget tomorrow is Monday.
And I can’t get enough of it. Come find me on Sunday, having what can only be described as an irresponsible amount of afternoon liquid calories, noshing on the bar staples, flirting with some babes, and oh yeah, gambling. Which, if you’ve been paying attention (maybe like eight of you), I’m doing really well with these picks. Most pro gamblers shoot for 56-58% correct range. I’m well within that for the first four weeks. Which means this week is perfect fade material.
My Patriots were on Thursday Night Football. On the short week coming off one of the most miserable defensive performances I’ve ever seen. You know my rule. Pats lose? Unload the 401K on them the following game. Thursday night picks are 7-1 heading into Tampa…
No Gronk tonight. Still lean Pats and over, but LOVE a tease Pats and the under https://t.co/9fLrtVy6Xf
— Boston Max (@BostonMaxG) October 5, 2017
Okay, so came out with a push on the spread and a loss on the total, but I actually bet that teaser (you get to manipulate the spread and the total by 6 points, but have to win both, so I manipulated it to Pats +1 and Under 59.5, and that hit easily).
CHARGERS AT GIANTS (-3.5); 45
Philip cry me a Rivers is a shadow of his former self. Yet San Diego, I mean Los Angeles, is better than an 0-4 football team. They’ve played some really tight games and just can’t get over the hump. I think they fall to 0-5 here. West coast team coming east to play a 1 p.m. game, Eli also 0-4, Giants better on paper.
Picks: Giants -3.5; Under 45
BILLS AT BENGALS (-3); 39.5
Your first place Bills!! Bills mafia represent. Their defense has been impressive. But Cincy’s defense has been quietly playing well, too. Their problem has been on offense, but they’ve got too much talent – Dalton, Green, Mixon, etc – to be playing as poorly as they have this season. I’ll take the team with the much better offense.
Picks: Bengals -3; Over 39.5
JETS AT BROWNS (PK); 39.5
The craziest story in the NFL, for me, has been the Jets. They traded away every single player that can possibly help the team win. They brought in a QB who hasn’t won back to back games since before the Red Sox broke the curse. And yet here they are, 2-2 with a chance to go into Cleveland and get their third win in a row. BANANAS. Only the Jets would win when they’re trying to lose. Do the players know they’re trying to lose? It’s like the football version of Major League with Josh McCown playing the role of Jake Taylor.
Picks: Browns (pk); Over 39.5
JAGUARS AT STEELERS (-8.5); 44
The Jags have the worst run defense in the NFL, so expect Le’Veon Bell to have a break out game. And Pittsburgh’s defense? They’ve been stout. Run, pass, doesn’t matter. Third in the league in DVOA. I think they eat Blake the snake Bortles alive. But I like the under, and that has a lot of back door cover (shouts to the podcast) potential.
Picks: Jags +8.5; Under 44
TITANS (-3) AT DOLPHINS
The flyin’ Hawaiin Marcus Mariota is going to be a game-time decision. And if he plays, how effective is he going to be? This is really a pass all around for me, but if you must play it…both defenses have been brutal. BUT, Miami has been great against the run. 2nd in the league. Puts a lot of pressure on whoever is playing QB for Tennessee.
Picks: Dolphins +3 (Total not posted at time of writing)
49ERS AT COLTS (-1.5); 44
We can call this the “Tom Brady Backup Bowl” with Brian Hoyer squaring off against Jacoby Brissett. Some really riveting shit. I think I’d rather watch a re-run of Big Bang Theory than this football game.
Picks: 49ers +1.5; Under 44
CARDINALS AT EAGLES (-6.5); 45.5
Carson Emerson Lake and Palmer has been under fire all season (17 sacks), and it looks like they’ll be without their starting left tackle. Still, under all the pressure, Palmer has been decent. Their offense just leaves too much to be desired without David Johnson. The Arizona defense, especially against the run, will have to keep them in this game.
Picks: Cardinals +6.5; under 45.5
PANTHERS AT LIONS (-2.5); 44
Is there a bigger moron on earth than Cam Newton? Serious question. Dude said some sexist shit the other day about being surprised about an intricate football question by a female reporter. What an idiot. You know Cam, there was a time they used to say stupid shit like that about black QBs. So just shut your fucking mouth and play football.
Picks: Panthers +2.5; Under 44
SEAHAWKS AT RAMS (pk); 46.5
This game is a pick em, but it opened with rams as, like, 2-point favorites. Which is crazyyy. Going into this season, how could you figure the Rams being home favorites against Seattle? But Jared Goff has been awesome this season. But they haven’t been really all that battle-tested. Seattle can’t protect the quarterback, but their defense – especially against the pass – has been solid.
Picks: Seahawks pk; Under 46.5
RAVENS AT RAIDERS (-2.5); 39
On the one hand, Baltimore has been atrocious as of late. On the other, Oakland has also been bad, and they’re down their starting QB. EJ Manuel will get the start for Oakland, and, um, he stinks. Yes, the Ravens are without Pro Bowl guard Marshal Yanda for the season, and the line is all out of sync without him. But, come on, EJ Manuel?
Picks: Ravens +2.5; Over 39
PACKERS AT COWBOYS (-2); 53
The Packers injury report looks like the leger at Ellis Island. Their sideline injury tent has been more populated than a Civil War Army tent. I legit don’t even know how they’re filling out their 53-man roster.
Picks: Cowboys -2; Under 53
CHIEFS (-1) AT TEXANS; 45.5
The emergence of Deshaun Watson! Kid’s a stud plain and simple. He’s playing with a ton of confidence, and they just decimated the Titans. But here you have the Chiefs sitting at 4-0 and looking strong. I think Houston can keep Kareem Hunt from exploding for big run plays.
Picks: Texans +1; Under 45.5
VIKINGS (-3) AT BEARS
Yeah, so, Chicago is starting Mitchell Trubisky on Monday Night Football. I’d think they try and slow the game for him by working in running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik “I don’t know how he has this last name” Cohen. But Minny has been great against the run this season.
Picks: Vikings -3 (Total not posted at time of writing)
LAST WEEK
ATS: 10-6
Totals: 10-6
SEASON
ATS: 36-26-1
Totals: 37-25-1
As always, follow me on Twitter to get the Thursday night picks, and on Instagram to support my #brand. Also, if you don’t know how to gamble but want to get into the game, shoot me a DM (they’re always open) and I’ll help you out..
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Boston Max
Spending my retirement fund at Trader Joe's and trying to remember to check my mailbox semi-regularly
@BostonMaxG
@boston_maxg
Having both Carr & Montgomery go down in the same week, absolutely destroyed me.
Question for the group: I’m having an unlucky bye week, and am desperate for RB’s. Is it worth taking marshawn lynch out for latavius murray/abdullah?
I like Abdullah
I agree, love Abdullah. Detroit’s committed to the run game, and Abdullah’s rushing backup (Dwayne Washington) probably won’t play. Theo Riddick is always gonna get his, but there’s way more upside with Ameer than Marshawn Lynch or Latavius Murray.
Appreciate the feedback, guys. Abdullah it is. I’m still nervous on trusting murray, though there may be some upside down the road with Cook out.
RE: PANTHERS AT LIONS (-2.5); 44
That fiery Cam rant wasn’t inspired by NE defense making Cam look like TB12 last week is it?
No it was inspired by Cam being a hypocritical douche nozzle. You can’t be all for “the cause,” black/white equality – but then turn around and be a sexist dickhead. Having said that, talent on the field? Cam looked much improved. Remember, he missed pre-season, so he’s still “warming up.” He made some good throws last week and I have no reason to believe he won’t continue to feel more comfortable against Detroit
Dude, quit sleeping on the Chiefs. Show them the respect they deserve.
I literally took the Chiefs to cover last week … and I had them covering opening night at Gillette…
Lions are going to the super bowl.
Picking the Panthers over the Lions in Detroit? Come on man…
More than 60% of the public on Detroit; teams have been very similar in terms of defensive and offensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).
So why pick the Panthers? Ford Field is a huge difference.
Fading the public…. Look, I’m not saying I’d be surprised if the Lions cover 2.5, but Carolina is 7-1-1 in their last 9 ATS as road dogs…
fair enough