Spread ‘Em Wide: NFL Week 1 Picks From A Mediocre Degenerate

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Fall. Autumn for the high brow socialites. Everyone’s favorite season besides summer. And maybe spring. Certainly not winter but I could hear an argument. But anyway, fall is dope. Pumpkin spiced everything. Vest season!!! Han Solo ‘fits everywhere. Cuffing season!! Love, couples, apple picking, all that crap!

Oh yeah, and it’s wedding football season! (also futbol season, #COYS). And with football season comes tailgates. With football season comes posting up at a bar for too long, drinking too many beers while glutinously taking down wings and nachos. It’s the crisp air that slightly tingles the nostrils. The leaves changing colors. Patriots at the top of the AFC East by mid-October. It’s the circle of life. And it also means one thing for a lot of us:

Betting every single game on the board.

Every year I say I’m “out” on the NFL. I say “I’m going to quit playing fantasy football.” I say “I think I’m done watching non-Patriots NFL games.” I say “the NFL is getting soft with all their rule changes.” I say “this is the year I watch more Premier League than NFL.” BUT, training camp comes around. And then Hard Knocks comes on. And inevitably I’m sick and tired of betting baseball. So college football rolls around pre-Labor Day and I’m all the way in on college games and betting every game like there’s no tomorrow. Just blindly taking overs, unders, favorites, dogs. Everything. And by the time I’ve gone through a whirlwind week one of college football, I’m alllll the way back in on the NFL.

So with that, I give you my picks for the opening week. I won’t be giving out picks for every game this year, but if there’s a game you want to bet that I don’t have written in the blog, I’ll still give you my lean if you DM me. Also I must say, I am in no way shape or form responsible for any and all money that you wager and lose (or win!) HOWEVA, last season I did like six or seven weeks worth of NFL picks before it lost some steam, and the picks I gave out against the spread hit at a 55.8% win rate which is damn good (my totals were at 51.8%).

So, if you trust me, feel free to tail. And, if you don’t trust me because I don’t know what a date is, well, I don’t blame ya…fade away.

Anyway, let’s dance.

All lines are from mybookie.ag Use the promo code “PGP” for a hundo p signing bonus when you sign up. It’s like a 401K! Except instead of employer matching it’s MyBookie matching, which is infinitely better because instead of waiting until you’re retired to touch that money, you can touch it immediately.

FALCONS AT EAGLES (+1)

This game opened at Philly -3, and quickly moved to -2.5 once Carson Wentz was ruled out and Nick Foles was named the starting QB for the birds (the Philly birds, not the Atlanta birds…because they’re both birds…Here’s a video of a hypothetical falcon versus eagle fight, but I’m not sure how predictive this is of NFL play). This game has seen some absolutely girls gone wild line movement over the last day or so, and now Philly is getting a point at home. I would have loved to have jumped all over the Falcons +3 like a dog jumping on a war veteran returning home, but alas, I did not snag it and now it’s been bet so heavily I actually like the Eagles here, at home, as a 1-point dog.

Pick: Philadelphia +1

STEELERS AT BROWNS (+4)

I just don’t see how Cleveland will operate without their three best players Devon Cajuste, Nate Orchard, and Carl Nassib…but seriously, I think the public tends to over-value Hard Knocks teams immediately following the airing of the show, except this year. The level of incompetence within the Browns organization was revealed; Hue Jackson won’t be the head coach any longer than José Mourinho will be (still snuck a futbol joke in!). But, they are not as bad as their 0-16 season last year. They only returned like 40% of the roster, Tyrod Taylor is a proven NFL veteran QB who can win some ball games, and it’s always a tough ask to bet on a road favorite in a division game. Plus home opener? Dawgpound? No Le’Veon Bell for Pittsburgh? Lot of public dough on the Steelers?….

Pick: Cleveland +4

NINERS +6.5 AT VIKINGS

Minnesota is going to be damn good this year. Kirk Cousins will lead them to a playoff spot. The Niners? They will not be that great this season, despite all the off-season moves, and despite a full off-season for Jimmy G to feel more acclimated into the Kyle Shanahan offense. But, I also know this: Jimmy G is a bad mothafucka. He’s a gamer. He’s going to be so amped for this season opener. He’ll keep it close or die trying.

Pick: San Francisco +6.5

BENGALS AT COLTS (-2.5)

I really don’t know what to make of either of these two teams, especially Indy. But, I do know that Andrew Luck is back and it looks like the public is leaning towards the road dog in Cincy… smells fishy to me. Expect the Bengals to feature a heavy blitz to try and spook Luck a bit; he hasn’t played a meaningful game in 19 months. Having said that, the Indy O-line is much improved. Also I’ve seen this line at -3 most places, and you can get it at -2.5 at MyBookie.ag! I also like the total going over 48.5, but I’m going to wait and see if that number comes down a point or so since I see a lot of people on the under and when the public goes under, daddy goes over.

Pick: Indianapolis -2.5

BILLS (+8) AT RAVENS; OVER 40.5

This is going to be a little two-for-one special. Just like my trip to Boston this past weekend; got not one but two Pearl Jam concerts at Fenway. Jizz everywhere. Now it’s time to double up on this game. I don’t like the Bills on the road, it’s just that I hate the Ravens at home favored by more than a touchdown. That’s bananas in pajamas. Yes, I understand that Mr. Peterman (Nathan) is starting under center for Buffalo and last year he was the worst QB of all time (38.4 QB rating in four games, not actually worst of all time but can’t be sure if I don’t look it up, old hockey trick). He actually looked decent in the preseason, winning the job over first round pick Josh Allen. The Bills also return most of their playoff defense from last year. Public seems to be all over Baltimore and the under, so let’s play a little game of fade the public on opening day, since we have very little information about these two teams.

Picks: Buffalo +8; Over 40.5

BUCCANEERS (+10) AT SAINTS

The Bucs don’t have famous Jameis Winston at QB since he’s been suspended for being awful. So they’ll roll with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center (did you hear? He went to Harvard). I really like the improvements made to the Tampa Bay defense. The Saints are without Mark Ingram so expect a heavy does of Alvin Kamara. I can’t support taking a 10-point favorite in a division game…you don’t have to bet this one. But I will be and I’ll be betting Tampa.

Pick: Tampa Bay +10

TEXANS (+6.5) AT PATRIOTS

If I’ve learned anything in my years as a degenerate and even more years as a die-hard Patriots fan, it’s that you don’t make money betting against the Patriots. BUT… hear me out: New England usually starts the season a bit sluggish. Bill Belichick is okay losing a few games early; he wants to feel out the team and sort out the kinks. Remember “we’re on to Cincinnati?” Remember the season opener last year? It takes time for the players to grasp the complicated schemes in New England. Add on to the fact that they are so shallow at wide receiver right now that all Houston has to do is stop Gronk (I know it’s easier said than done) and keep an eye on the running backs out of the backfield. Plus the Pats struggle against mobile QBs like Houston’s Watson.

Pick: Houston +6.5

CHIEFS AT CHARGERS (-3.5); UNDER 48.5

I may wait and see if this moves to Chargers -3, or buy it down, just not to lose by the hook. But what I like most here is the under. The Chiefs are going to start with second year QB Pat Mahomes and I don’t think anyone really knows what the offense is going to look like with him under center. And the “vaunted” Chiefs defense? Struggled last year, both against the pass and the run (29th & 25th respectively). They’ll be improved, yes, but enough to get Mahomes his first win, on the road? I’m not expecting it.

Picks: San Diego Los Angeles -3.5, Under 48.5

BEARS AT PACKERS (-7.5)

I always feel like the Bears and Packers open the season facing off. That’s how the NFC North should be, bee tee dubs. While Khalil Mack will be active for Chicago, I just don’t see Aaron Rodgers and his new fat daddy contract coming out and laying an egg. I expect a Packers blow out win, opening night under the lights of Lambeau.

Pick: Green Bay -7.5

So there you have it. A smattering of picks against the spread (and a few bonus totals!!) for your first week of the 2018 NFL season. I’ll take a look a college football too and have some picks for that, so make sure to follow me on Twitter and Instagram to get my Saturday college football picks. Well, Twitter for the picks, Instagram to support my #brand..

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Boston Max

Spending my retirement fund at Trader Joe's and trying to remember to check my mailbox semi-regularly

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